Triathlon and Regression Toward the Mean

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

This is a very tricky subject.  I have touched it several times but never went over.  It is the main reason why we have to choose our partners; we can become as the ones we critized if we interact with them for a long time:

In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and, paradoxically, if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.^[1][2][3] To avoid making wrong inferences, regression toward the mean must be considered when designing scientific experiments and interpreting data.

This concept has not a translation to Spanish.  IT IS SCARRY!  This is a basic concept when we think about things scientifically; it is a sin ne quo non in science.  It is very important what could happen due to luck or to what we consider a trend in science:

The concept of regression comes from genetics and was popularized by Sir Francis Galton during the late 19th century with the publication of Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature.^[6] Galton observed that extreme characteristics (e.g., height) in parents are not passed on completely to their offspring. Rather, the characteristics in the offspring regress towards a mediocre point (a point which has since been identified as the mean). By measuring the heights of hundreds of people, he was able to quantify regression to the mean, and estimate the size of the effect. Galton wrote that, “the average regression of the offspring is a constant fraction of their respective mid-parental deviations”.

How to influence the regression toward the mean so we can overcome mediocrity or continue on constant improvement? Gómez and the Brownlees are able to perform at the top, no matter if it is a wet run or a hilly course in triathlon.  They are always on the top, not allowing a regression toward the mean.  They do not play dice when performing in triathlon; every move have been visualized or done previously, nothing is left on the off chance.  If we left performance on the off chance a regression toward the mean is inevitable.  This phenomenon happens when the triathlete is not a good bicycle rider; he depends on the ones pulling the peloton to chase the first pack, or simply he sits on the pack on the off chance that he could have a good run (playing the wet run).  This sitting on the wheel of someone is taught to our triathletes, instead of helping them to improve their bike performance.

Historically, what is now called regression toward the mean has also been called reversion to the mean and reversion to mediocrity.

On the other side, some of the “good” results of our triathletes could be attributed to a REGRESSION TOWARD THE MEAN.  We need to reflect on what we do and what we need to work on.